Implied Probability Calculator
Every set of odds implies a specific likelihood of an event occurring. Use this tool to translate confusing odds into a clear win percentage (break even point).
Implied Probability
Odds to Percentage
Tip: If the Implied Probability is lower than your estimated win percentage, you have found a +EV bet.
Find Value Automatically: EdgeSlip compares Implied Probability vs Real Probability (xG) for thousands of games to find +EV bets.
View +EV DashboardImplied Probability
(1 / 1.91) * 100
To break even on these odds, you must win >52.4% of your bets.
What is this tool?
The Implied Probability Calculator converts sports betting odds into a percentage chance of winning. This is also known as the 'Break Even' percentage. It tells you exactly how often a wager needs to win for you to be profitable long-term. If you believe a team has a 60% chance to win (your handicapping), but the implied probability of the odds is only 52%, you have found a positive expected value (+EV) opportunity.
How to use it
Simply enter the odds from your sportsbook (e.g., -110 American or 1.91 Decimal) into the input field. The calculator will instantly display the implied win percentage. You can also toggle the arrow icon to switch to "Probability to Odds" mode: enter a target percentage (e.g., 55%) to see the minimum odds you should accept for that bet to be profitable.
Common Conversions Cheat Sheet
| American | Decimal | Implied Prob |
|---|---|---|
| -200 | 1.50 | 66.67% |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.38% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.00% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% |
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.67% |
What is Implied Probability?
In sports betting, Implied Probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It answers the fundamental question: "How often does this bet need to win for me to break even?"
For example, if you bet on a coin flip, the true probability is 50%. However, sportsbooks rarely offer fair odds (+100). They typically offer -110 on both sides. The implied probability of -110 is 52.38%. This means you must win more than 52.38% of your -110 bets to make a profit. The gap between 50% (true) and 52.38% (implied) is the house edge.
The Conversion Formulas
Negative Odds (-)
(-Odds) / (-Odds + 100)
Example (-150): 150 / (150+100) = 0.60 (60%)
Positive Odds (+)
100 / (Odds + 100)
Example (+200): 100 / (200+100) = 0.33 (33.3%)
Decimal Odds
(1 / Decimal Odds) * 100
Example (2.50): (1 / 2.50) * 100 = 40%
Implied vs. True Probability
It is critical to distinguish between the probability implied by the odds and the True Probability of the event. The odds you see on FanDuel or DraftKings include the "vig" (juice/overround). If you sum the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a game (e.g. Team A win + Team B win), the total will always exceed 100% (typically 104% to 108%).
To find the True Probability, you must remove this margin. Professional bettors calculate this by using a No-Vig Calculator on odds from sharp bookmakers (like Pinnacle). Once you know the vig-free probability, you compare it to the implied probability at softer books to find value.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is implied probability in betting?▼
How do you calculate implied probability from American odds?▼
Why do implied probabilities sum to over 100%?▼
Can I convert Probability back to Odds?▼
Is Implied Probability the same as True Probability?▼
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