Prediction Model

Poisson Calculator

Convert Expected Goals (xG) into exact win probabilities. The secret weapon for betting on low-scoring sports like Soccer and Hockey.

Poisson Distribution

Predict Score Probabilities

Why use this? Low-scoring sports follow a Poisson distribution. By inputting the average goals a team is expected to score (xG), we can model the exact likelihood of every possible scoreline. Comparing these "True Odds" to the sportsbook's lines is how sharps find value on Correct Score and Over/Under markets.

ProbabilitiesCalculated from xG

Home Win
47.9%
2.09
Draw
24.3%
4.11
Away Win
27.8%
3.60
Over 2.5 Goals
54.2%
Under 2.5 Goals
45.8%
Most Likely Scores
#11-1
11.5%8.73
#21-0
9.5%10.48
#32-1
9.4%10.58
#42-0
7.9%12.70
#50-1
6.9%14.41

Where to get xG data? EdgeSlip Pro integrates live Expected Goals (xG) data for every EPL and NHL match directly into the odds feed.

See Live xG Data

What is Poisson Distribution in Betting?

Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept used to calculate the probability of a specific number of events happening over a fixed period. In sports betting, it is incredibly accurate for modeling low-scoring sports like Soccer (EPL, La Liga, MLS) and Ice Hockey (NHL).

By inputting the average number of goals a team is expected to score (known as "Attack Strength" or "Expected Goals - xG"), the formula outputs the percentage chance of them scoring exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, or more goals.

How to find Value with this Tool

Input the xG for both teams (Home & Away).
View the 'Implied Odds' for the Home Win, Draw, and Away Win.
Compare these odds to your Sportsbook.
If the Calculator says the odds should be +150 (2.50) and the Book is offering +180 (2.80), you have found a +EV bet.

The Formula

P(k; λ) = (λ^k * e^-λ) / k!
  • P = Probability of the score
  • k = Number of goals (e.g., 0, 1, 2)
  • λ (Lambda) = Expected Goals (xG)
  • e = Euler's number (~2.718)

Don't have xG Data?

Calculating Attack Strength and Defensive Strength for every team manually is a full-time job. EdgeSlip aggregates professional xG data for every major league automatically.

Access Pro xG Data

Limitations

Poisson is a powerful model, but it assumes events are independent. It doesn't account for game state (e.g., a team parking the bus after scoring early) or injuries. It is best used as a baseline to identify massive discrepancies in the market, not as a blind betting system.